The Leg Up – Thursday 2 November 2017

Popular race-by-race meeting preview The Leg Up by Thoroheads provides in-depth summaries, tips and suggested bets.

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RACE 1 HOMESTEAD BREWERY MAIDEN 1:22 PM (1690M)

The cerise and white spring blitz looks set to continue with Peters Investments filly AMERICAN JOY ready to win stepping up to 1690 metres third up this campaign. The Team William-prepared three-year-old ran through the line first up at York and should’ve finished closer to the smart Vital Silver last start, after losing momentum at a crucial stage swinging for home. AMERICAN JOY is bred to relish the mile (and beyond) and with even luck in running it’s hard imagining any of these being able to hold her out late. SCINTILLATING nosed out AMERICAN JOY for second last start and is poised to enjoy the right run in transit from his low draw. Hasn’t done a lot wrong all campaign, and the Vital Silver and Action formlines certainly stand out. MASSA MAC is a horse we’ve been tracking recently and he improved as expected third up at Northam last start, having had no luck at his first two outings this campaign. That hit-out will bring him forwards and Bollinger Boy has come out and won again, so the form reads well, while we were keen on RACY AVA last start and she was shorter in the market than both AMERICAN JOY and SCINTILLATING on that occasion. Performed well below expectations but don’t be surprised to see sharp improvement here.

Tips: 7-2-1-9
Suggested Bet: (7) AMERICAN JOY to win.

RACE 2 MANDOON ESTATE HANDICAP 1:57 PM (1690M)

MYCROFT competed well against some of the best three-year-olds in the State during the autumn and he kicked off his four-year-old campaign with new trainer Stephen Miller in style with a sharp first-up win at Northam. Followed up with a competitive showing in what’s turned out to be a strong form race at Belmont last start, however, he may have suffered a mid-prep setback as this will be his first outing in 36 days. MYCROFT still has a significant class edge over these rivals though, and the astute stable wouldn’t be stepping him out unless they were confident he was ready. We rate MYCROFT and would be surprised if he doesn’t get the job done. The race-fit/in-form SUPERIOR SMILE is the obvious danger having recorded two-top finishes at each of his past five starts. The Pearce Bros have been killing it in recent times and this three-year-old keeps showing up despite being deep into only his second racing campaign. Honest mare MY FAIR BEAUTY is returning from a let up after two encouraging winter performances, including a fresh minor placing in a similar assignment to this at Northam two back. We expect to see her compete well stepping out for the first time in 64 days, while ROJO CALOR should be closing in on his best form third up and the Justin Warwick stable have been posting strong results in recent weeks.

Tips: 1-2-6-4 (*amended after final scratchings)
Suggested Bet: (1) MYCROFT to win.

RACE 3 EATON BOOMERS FOOTBALL CLUB MAIDEN 2:37 PM (1208M)

This three-year-old maiden is one of the more interesting races on the card and we’re fairly bullish about the chances of beautifully-bred first starter ARCTIC STREAM. Out of 2009 Jungle Mist Classic winner Royal Devotion, this son of High Chaparral displayed plenty at the trials when last in work and showed he had come forward this campaign with an impressive recent Lark Hill trial victory. It was hard not to be taken with the way this smooth mover covered the ground on that occasion and ARCTIC STREAM appears likely to enjoy the right run jumping from a low draw on debut. Should be winning with even luck in running. Speedy filly KONDITORI followed up her strong trial results with a debut placing at Northam three weeks ago, racing on pace and showing some good fighting qualities late. Is capable of leading with a clean getaway from the inside draw and KONDITORI deserves to rate among the main contenders. First starter GINGERELLA showed tremendous gate speed in her only trial hit-out to date and matched motors with Golden Arches late, who performed well on debut recently. The heat time was pretty sharp on that occasion also, so we’re expecting GINGERELLA to hold her own on debut, while GEOGRAPHE BAY should have gone close to winning his most recent trial and will more than likely be well over the odds. Don’t be surprised to see him run a cheeky race on debut.

Tips: 2-4-8-3
Suggested Bet: (2) ARCTIC STREAM win & place (e.g. 1 x 3 units).

RACE 4 PARKS CENTRE SHOPPING CENTRE MAIDEN 3:15 PM (1008M)

The sparks looks set to fly with an abundance of speed engaged in this short-course maiden and it’s hard to go past first starter MACROY after winning each of her three trial outings to date. Clocked sharp time when leading and effortlessly saluting over 950 metres at Lark Hill recently, accounting for subsequent winners Demeritorious and In Love With Paris, and this Bruce Watkins-trained three-year-old is simply a natural. MACROY jumps well and covers the ground with ease, and we expect to see her travel outside fast beginner MERVYN and control the race from there. Slides in with only 52kg, thanks to Kate Witten’s claim, and MACROY should be too slick for her rivals on debut. Very interesting to see the cerise and white clad STATE ATTORNEY coming back in distance after getting rolled narrowly as a $1.40 favourite here last start, but he has by far-and-away the best formlines in the race and must be respected. STATE ATTORNEY may slide out to a decent price also with a wave of money expected for MACROY. Likely leader MERVYN is a real bookies pin-up boy, having been beaten as favourite at all five starts this campaign at prices ranging from $1.55 to $2.90. Led them up again at Northam on Sunday, but was no match for Conical Peak late, and Justin Warwick has opted to send him around on the four-day back up here. MERVYN has to be included in the mix, while WINE THIEF has strong Disruptive and Soundcheck formlines and is capable of making her presence felt coming back in distance off a 28-day break.

Tips: 8-1-9-3 (*amended after final scratchings)
Suggested Bet: (8) STATE ATTORNEY to win (*amended after final scratchings).

RACE 5 THIRSTY CAMEL DRIVE THRU HANDICAP 3:49 PM (1410M)

Good contest to kick off the ate Quaddie and we’re going for impressive last-start maiden winner VITAL SILVER to knock off likely short-priced favourite REBELLIONAIRE. The Pearce Bros-prepared VITAL SILVER met with strong support in betting ($3.30 to $2.60) over this route last time and raced away to record a dominant victory after stalking the speed in transit. Was strong through the line, despite over-racing in transit, and the half-brother to the smart Touch Of Silver should naturally improve with additional race experience. VITAL SILVER appears untapped and we’re locking him in for the minor upset. Exciting three-year-old REBELLIONAIRE stretched outstanding colt Debellatio over this distance at Belmont in early September and looked super-sharp when smashing the line at the October 16 Lark Hill trials, however, he produced a flat run when missing a place as a $2.10 favourite at Ascot last start. Not sure what to make of that performance and the eight-day turnaround doesn’t fill us with a heap of confidence, but REBELLIONAIRE is a classy individual and trainer Darren McAuliffe can find a way when his horses are up against it. THE SHOE is a three-year-old with plenty of ability and we’re expecting sharp improvement after a disappointing first-up effort in Graduation 62+ company, while BLACKBEEL caught the eye when running on nicely first up at Northam.

Tips: 4-2-3-1
Suggested Bet: (4) VITAL SILVER to win.

RACE 6 THIRSTY CAMEL BOTTLESHOP MAIDEN 4:30 PM (1208M)

There are a couple of standouts in this second leg of the late Quaddie, however, after sifting through the form we’ve found more than half the field have legitimate claims. In saying that, we simply couldn’t go past local four-year-old and likely favourite FINANCE, who was heavily commissioned ($5 to $4.20) first up last start and was pretty much beaten by barrier 14, lunging late and missing out by a long head after settling well back in running. Regular rider Jarrad Noske is back on board and this fellow hasn’t finished further back than fourth in five starts to date, so he’s built up a level of trust. FINANCE deserves to break through and this looks his race to lose. The Team William-trained first starter RED ARMY couldn’t have done a lot more when winning his recent Lark Hill trial in very fast time, coming from off the pace to overhaul his rivals late under a strong hold from Glenn Smith. High draw means he’ll more than likely drift back early, but with even luck in running RED ARMY should be charging home into the finish late. RAMRUEY showed plenty of spark against smart opposition when last in work and his recent trial result suggests new trainer Anne King has him ready to run a race fresh. Look out for this fellow to get back and power home, while ALI BARBER raced four-wide, without cover, throughout on debut and did a good job to be beaten only 4-1/2 lengths on the line. Don’t be surprised to see him challenge strongly.

Tips: 1-7-5-3
Suggested Bet: (1) FINANCE win & place (e.g. 1 x 3 units).

RACE 7 PARKS TAVERN RESTAURANT HANDICAP 5:10 PM (1008M)

This has the makings of a trap race and we’re suggesting punters tread warily in this short-course Class 1 Handicap. We’ve ended up selecting likely favourite AMBIENTE on top first up after he was good to us at his Bunbury debut on April 12, putting a gap on them in a fairly stylish display. Followed that victory up with a fighting second down the Straight 1000 at Pinjarra, with Vandemonian going on to win two of his next three starts including a Graduation 62+ event at Belmont in June. AMBIENTE wasn’t knocked around by Joe Azzopardi against some handy opposition in a recent Lark Hill trial and we suspect if this fellow brings his best then he should be a little too smart for his rivals fresh. Speedy front-runner BANK ON BUZZ has been building towards a peak performance, and he looks set to crash across and lead jumping from the outside draw. Gave some cheek in a race including Rhi’s Rocket and Cuanzo at Northam last start, and both those gallopers would be very short against this line up, so it wouldn’t surprise us to see BANK ON BUZZ post a top-three finish at odds. GLEN ALBYN races first up without a trial and is more than capable of making his presence felt. Has recorded three top-four finishes from six Bunbury starts and this looks the sort of race GLEN ALBYN could show up in, while on-pacer MADAM WINKS should be ready to peak third up and we wouldn’t be leaving her out of our First Fours coming back to the five furlongs.

Tips: 1-2-5-4
Suggested Bet: (1) AMBIENTE to win.

RACE 8 PARKS TAVERN SPORTS BAR HANDICAP 5:45 PM (1108M)

Race of the day comes up in the last with several Saturday-grade customers competing in this Class 5 Handicap. And we’re quite keen on the chances of first-upper MANTIME, who competed well against some sharp sprinters, including Dainty Tess, during a solid three-year-old campaign. The Simon A. Miller-trained four-year-old looked in good nick when runner up in a recent Lark Hill trial, and he could’ve comfortably won the heat had Aaron Mitchell asked him for an effort. A fresh MANTIME will be sharp enough to fire over the 1100 metres and he also should enjoy the right run in transit, stalking the leaders from his sweet low draw. MANTIME has considerable upside and we’re expecting to see an enhanced version this season. Well regarded mare BONNY BE GOOD was a $3.20 chance in Ratings 72+ company, so she has to rate extremely highly coming back to this grade. The tempo back at this distance is a concern, but BONNY BE GOOD is coming off a 33-day break so she should have enough spring in her step to hold a position early. GET OVER IT has a heap of talent but can be a bit wayward at times, so this fellow looks set to provide in-form apprentice Tayla Stone with a unique challenge. Is certainly good enough to get back and challenge late, while first-upper COOL IMAGE is handy fresh and caught the eye in a recent Lark Hill trial.

Tips: 5-8-4-7 (*amended after final scratchings)
Suggested Bet: (5) MANTIME to win (*amended after final scratchings).


The Leg Up is provided by Thoroheads — Digital content producers servicing the Western Australian Thoroughbred Horse Racing Industry.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the view of the Bunbury Turf Club.