The Leg Up – Friday 26 January 2018

Popular race-by-race meeting preview The Leg Up by Thoroheads provides in-depth summaries, tips and suggested bets.

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RACE 1 HORSELAND BUNBURY – BEST DRESSED MAIDEN 1:08 PM (1016M)

Narrowed the opening event on Australia Day down to two, with TRIPELETTO and CHESTEN FLYER set to fight out the finish, and we’re thinking the Michael Lane first-starter TRIPELETTO can get the job done. Has been well schooled at the trials and has won his two most recent outings under a hold, so there certainly appears to be plenty under the hood. TRIPELETTO should be able to land outside leader or one pair back, and from there he’s going to take some beating. We were impressed with the trial of CHESTEN FLYER and he followed it up with an equally strong debut performance last week, competing very well against the likes of smart customers Tango Ora and Get The Vibe. Those formlines do stand out and he’s bound to have plenty of admirers on the nine-day back up. CLASSY MARCY is a clear third pick after back-to-back second placings, and she showed plenty of fight when going down only a half-length at Pinjarra last start. Has the gate speed to lead and capable of running a cheeky race out in front, while first-upper EXPRESS FLIRT caught the eye when kicking off his previous campaign and we’re expecting to see him making good ground late.

Tips: 3-4-7-2
Suggested: 3. TRIPELETTO win.

3. TRIPELETTO
4. CHESTEN FLYER
7. CLASSY MARCY
2. EXPRESS FLIRT

RACE 2 AUSTRALIA DAY MAIDEN 1:48 PM (1705M)

William Pike has a fantastic book of rides and we’re tipping him to have a big day at the office, with Peters Investments filly MAGICAL CHARM poised to provide The Wizard with his first win on the card. The former $170,000 yearling was hard in the market ($5) on debut and although she was well beaten, the run wasn’t too bad, and she will no doubt appreciate stepping up to this distance, as well as the addition of blinkers. This maiden lacks depth and it appears to be a pretty good second-up option for MAGICAL CHARM, and with natural improvement we’re expecting this well-related filly to be too good. SUMMER’S SKYE is a real danger though and we wouldn’t be surprised to see her upset the likely short-priced favourite. Really liked her second-up Ascot performance and she again made ground at Pinjarra last time, so the smaller field and increased distance here looks right up her alley. Expecting her to be strong through the line. QUIET WHISPER was a bit disappointing last start, however, her previous results were solid and the form through Touched reads well. She’s capable of bouncing back in this thin race, while BODEGA BEAU wasn’t too far away last start and appears the best of the rest.

Tips: 9-8-4-3
Suggested: 9. MAGICAL CHARM win.

9. MAGICAL CHARM
8. SUMMER’S SKYE
4. BODEGA BEAU
3.THE DIVINE WIND

*Numbers amended after Final Scratchings

RACE 3 FREE BUS TO SKYFEST 2018 HANDICAP 2:23 PM (2038M)

Going to take a leap of faith here and lock in up-and-coming three-year-old filly KELLY’S GEM on top. Is certainly eligible for easier races and she’s stepping up from 1400 to 2038 metres, however, the Adam Durrant factor is alive and well, not to mention she’ll be piloted by WA’s number one hoop William Pike. Durrant, who’s right back on top of his game after a year away from training, obviously has this girl pegged as a middle-distance performer and has thrown her in the deep end in this Class 5 Handicap, but she’s shown enough in her lead-up performances to suggests she’s above average and is capable of taking care of these, who mostly appear to be on their mark. KELLY’S GEM is set to attract plenty of support, having been well backed at her past two outings, and we’re fairly confident she’s a class above. GRAND CADEAU is the only other runner with significant upside and he wasn’t far away in a blanket finish at Ascot last week. Looks set to produce a peak performance third up over this distance and Dan Staeck will no doubt give him every opportunity from the lovely low draw. TOMMI TOOCAN is on the six-day back up after competing in Ratings 72+ company at Ascot on Saturday and looks much better placed in this grade. Copped a buffering in the straight last weekend, so should’ve actually finished closer and his form beforehand was good, while eight-year-old mare MRS HARTLEY has rarely raced better and has strong formlines around both GRAND CADEAU and TOMMI TOOCAN.

Tips: 6-2-4-7
Suggested: 6. KELLY’S GEM win.

6. KELLY’S GEM
2. GRAND CADEAU
4. TOMMI TOOCAN
7. MRS HARTLEY

RACE 4 XXXX GOLD MAIDEN 3:00 PM (1420M)

We’ve been tracking Kiwi-bred filly LOVE STRIKES for a while now and thought she could run a race on debut last Wednesday, and that she did, coming from well off the pace for a fast-finishing effort behind the smart Tango Ora over 1000 metres. Hard not to be impressed with the way she attacked the line on that occasion and that performance, combined with her breeding, suggests she’s going to relish the 1420-metre journey, and she should also be able to land in a more prominent running position from barrier one. LOVE STRIKES looks a filly of considerable promise and with even luck in running, she should prove too strong. First-starter DICKOLETTO will no doubt attract plenty of support following two eye-catching lead-up trial performances, and having William Pike on board certainly won’t hurt. Really like the way this fellow covers the ground and the Pearce Bros do usually have their runners ready to fire fresh, so we’re expecting DICKOLETTO to go close. WATCH ME NEY NEY caught the eye on debut and followed up with a very strong effort in a similar assignment to this last start, with the Daily Sectionals data confirming his standout closing sectionals, including easily the fastest last 200 metres of 11.78 seconds. Should be able to settle closer from the low draw and he has to be respected, while ASCOT GOLD has his share of ability and his first two Ascot efforts this campaign are much better than they read on paper. No surprise to see him fighting out the finish.

Tips: 11-6-3-4
Suggested: 11. LOVE STRIKES win.

11. LOVE STRIKES
6. DICKOLETTO
3. WATCH ME NEY NEY
4. ARGOON

*Numbers amended after Final Scratchings

RACE 5 DAILY SECTIONALS AT BUNBURY MAIDEN 3:37 PM (1216M)

Pretty keen on three-year-old debutantes UNIVERSAL WARRIOR and PATRONISM here, and we eventually sided with the Team Williams-trained UNIVERSAL WARRIOR. The former $110,000 yearling, whose dam is a half-sister to former superstar Marasco, has been well schooled with seven barrier trials under his belt, and he hasn’t been knocked around without blinkers on in his two hit outs this campaign. The blinkers going on for his first start is a real sign of intent, and we’re expecting UNIVERSAL WARRIOR to roll forward from his mid/high draw and control proceedings from on top of the speed. Clearly the horse to beat. Impressive Racing’s home-bred youngster PATRONISM trialled nicely back in September, but was unsighted until the Lark Hill heats on January 15 when performing much better than it reads on paper, going to the line relatively untested. Chris Parnham has picked up the ride after William Pike opted to partner UNIVERSAL WARRIOR, and we’re predicting a forward showing from PATRONISM. The race fit/in form EDITION is an obvious third pick after improving sharply to record top-three finishes at her past two outings. Is an on-pace runner, so will no doubt work forward from her outside alley and she only has to hold form to pick up another cheque, while first-upper ME ‘N’ TAZ resumes without a trial, but has shown enough over the journey to be included among the main hopes.

Tips: 7-6-1-5
Suggested: 7. UNIVERSAL WARRIOR win.

7. UNIVERSAL WARRIOR
6. PATRONISM
1. ME ‘N’ TAZ
5. DEADLY TOUCH

*Numbers amended after Final Scratchings

RACE 6 GET THE TABTOUCH HANDICAP 4:15 PM (1705M)

We were really impressed with the first-up victory of SENTIMENTAL FRIEND and although he’s going to start a short-priced favourite here, this does look a decent test considering the outside draw and the head-start he’s likely to be conceding. The Peters Investments three-year-old, who appears likely to head down a path towards the WA Derby (April 21), was clocked by Daily Sectionals sustaining some very strong closing splits last start (11.86, 11.86, 11.90) and those figures suggest he’s a horse with considerable talent. SENTIMENTAL FRIEND does have a bit against him, so we’ll all get a very good guide as to where he’s at, but we do expect him to be up to the challenge and find a way to win. Kiwi import PLAYS THE GAME appears the biggest danger and should be ready to produce a peak at this stage of his prep. His closing split (12.30) last start suggests there’s improvement there and he should be afforded every opportunity from barrier one, with the cutaway in play. RARE COIN met with strong support third up last start but lacked dash and worked home only fairly. Is better than what he’s shown this prep and we’re prepared to give him one more chance coming back in class, while the consistent MORE BXAAR comes through the same race as PLAYS THE GAME and has to rate among the top four chances.

Tips: 5-3-1-6
Suggested: 5. SENTIMENTAL FRIEND win.

5. SENTIMENTAL FRIEND
3. PLAYS THE GAME
1. RARE COIN
6. MORE BXAAR

RACE 7 IRON JACK LAGER HANDICAP 4:45 PM (1216M)

Very hard to look beyond SNOW BLOSSOM after she shook her bridesmaid tag in the most decisive fashion last start. The Daily Sectionals data clearly illustrates just how brilliant her turn-of-foot is, as she was clocked running her final 400 metres 3-1/2 lengths faster than any other runner, and the formlines stack up superbly with King Of Chaos going on to score a dominant win here last Thursday. SNOW BLOSSOM likes to get back and run on, so she does give the opposition a chance, but the cutaway rail being in play should provide her with the galloping room she requires to hit top gear in the straight. FAIR NAKITA was hard in the market at Narrogin last start but disappointed after having every chance in running. She’s much better than that and we’re expecting her to bounce back to form on her home deck. Big finishing five-year-old VENUS EBONY was a little flat when resuming at Ascot recently, but she may have resented the rain-affected surface on that occasion. We’re backing her in to be much sharper on top of the ground second up and she’s a must for your exotic bets, while first-upper PIRATE’S FORTUNE wasn’t far away in his lead-up trial and he did place in Graduation Handicap company at Belmont when kicking off his previous campaign.

Tips: 5-2-6-1
Suggested: 5. SNOW BLOSSOM win.

5. SNOW BLOSSOM
2. FAIR NAKITA
6. VENUS EBONY
1. BERKSHIRE

*Numbers amended after Final Scratchings

RACE 8 AMELIA PARK HANDICAP 5:15 PM (1116M)

Good clash to end the day with three-year-olds YOU AM I and ABDICATOR the two standouts. The Michael Lane-trained YOU AM I does look the one though, coming back sharply in grade after leading them up and finishing third behind quality types Street Fury and Cognac at Ascot last Saturday week. If either of those were engaged in this they’d be starting odds-on, so YOU AM I deserves to be at the top of the market here, and we’re expecting him to jump well, race on speed and get the job done. ABDICATOR has shown plenty of promise in two previous racing campaigns and looked in very good order when winning a recent Lark Hill trial. May find the 1116 metres a bit on the short side, but we still expect him to show some dash fresh and if YOU AM I is a little off his game then ABDICATOR will be winning. Speedy front-runner ICE MAKER found the 1208 metres a stretch last start, with Daily Sectionals clocking his final 200 metres in a race slowest 12.90 seconds. Better suited over this trip though and he can give them something to chase, while first-upper CLASSI SURVIVOR showed a bit last prep and wasn’t knocked around in her lead-up trial. Look out for her running on strong late.

Tips: 5-4-2-9
Suggested: 5. YOU AM I win.

5. YOU AM I
4. ABDICATOR
2. ICE MAKER
9. CLASSI SURVIVOR


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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the view of the Bunbury Turf Club.