The Leg Up – Thursday 18 January 2018

Popular race-by-race meeting preview The Leg Up by Thoroheads provides in-depth summaries, tips and suggested bets.

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RACE 1 OWN THE DREAM EVENTS SERIES HANDICAP 3:15 PM (1008M)

Decent little five-horse field to kick things off and any of them could win without surprising. There’s a reasonable boom on former expensive yearling SHACKLETON and he’s likely to start a short-priced favourite, however, we feel as though capable mare ARAFURA can really take it up to him. Hard in the market ($3.90) in Graduation 62+ company at Pinjarra last Saturday week, the Adam Fairey-trained five-year-old was trapped three-wide without cover throughout from barrier 11, and still managed to box and compete well late. Should be able to get a much softer run in transit here and, at her best, ARAFURA has the turn-of-foot to match the topweight coming back to 1008m. SHACKLETON is the horse to beat after two good wins since arriving in WA, although after looking set to score a comfortable victory last start he did appear to put in some short ones near the line, with Lucky Linda Lulu getting to within a half-length. That was 1100m, however, so coming back in distance slightly should suit and we’ll find out a bit more about the big fella against this opposition. Stablemate SUPPOSITION is no slouch and has a tremendous first-up record, so no surprise to see him run a big race fresh, while MEGA MINX is capable of crossing and leading, and she’s coming off a good last-start win over this track/distance.

Tips: 2-5-4-3
Suggested: 2. ARAFURA win.

2. ARAFURA
5. SUPPOSITION
4. MEGA MINX
3. LA BIONDA

*Numbers amended after final scratchings

RACE 2 HOT WELD MAIDEN 3:45 PM (1108M)

Didn’t mind the trial of THE NINTH HOUR at Belmont on January 8 and we’re expecting him to go close on debut. Gangemi Racing paid $85,000 for this Snitzel half-brother to multiple stakes winning South Australian sprinter Conservatorium, and he probably should’ve won his lead-up trial when encountering traffic issues and going to the line relatively untested. Drawn to get the right run in transit and THE NINTH HOUR can get his career off to the perfect start in this. SWEET DREAMIN’ is another first starter than has shown promise in trials and this Holly Locke-trained three-year-old is expected to figure prominently with William Pike in the saddle. Covered the ground nicely in his latest lead-up heat and hails from a winning family, so we’d recommend keeping him very safe on debut. The race fit/in form BLACKWOOD FLYER ran into a smart one in How To Fly here last Wednesday, but still competed well to hold down the minor placing. Drawn to enjoy a soft run in transit and she gets her best chance yet to break through, while HENNY JEAN improved nicely second up at Narrogin last start and with further improvement should be fighting out the finish.

Tips: 2-1-3-4
Suggested: 2. THE NINTH HOUR win (1) & place (3).

2. THE NINTH HOUR
1. SWEET DREAMIN’
3. BLACKWOOD FLYER
4. HENNY JEAN

RACE 3 COUNTRY BUILDERS WA MAIDEN 4:15 PM (1208M)

Pretty keen on the chances of TRAKIATO after his very encouraging debut performance in a hot race here on December 29. The Pearce Bros-prepared youngster competed very well against highly-rated trio Bon Voyage, Sariska and How To Fly on that occasion, with both How To Fly and Fair Sonari emerging from that race to win here last Wednesday. TRAKIATO looks set to enjoy the right run in transit, parked right behind the leaders, and from there he should get his chance. If he holds form, he should win comfortably. Local debutante IT COMES NATURAL looked nice and sharp when winning his lead-up trial here recently, jumping straight to the front and working to the line under a reasonable hold. Glenn Smith and Paul Roberts are always a combination worth respecting in the south west, and we’re anticipating a forward showing from IT COMES NATURAL. Fellow first starter ORIENTAL ROSE will have plenty of admirers considering the Dan Morton/William Pike connection and she did match motors with the smart Fine Scent at her most recent trial. Low draw is another positive and she has to be included, while first-upper THE LAST WALTZ was ridden out to win her lead-up trial in good style and maps to land in a sweet spot in running. Blinkers on too.

Tips: 1-3-9-6
Suggested: 1. TRAKIATO win.

1. TRAKIATO
3. IT COMES NATURAL
9. ORIENTAL ROSE
6. THE LAST WALTZ

RACE 4 AMELIA PARK WINES HANDICAP 4:45 PM (1208M)

The consistent LUCKY LINDA LULU gets her chance to return to winning form here and she’s certainly been knocking on the door in three starts this prep. Ran the well-regarded Shackleton to a half-length two back, before losing her position in traffic, and copping a significant slowdown between the 600m and 200m last Wednesday, only to come again on the line and chase home Snow Blossom and King Of Chaos. Vince Accardi’s Daily Sectionals data clearly illustrates the slowdown, compared to the first two home, so her effort to finish only two lengths from the winner was full of merit. Brett Pope and stable apprentice Mollie Clark combined for a winning double last Wednesday, and with even luck in running, they can keep their hot form going with LUCKY LINDA LULU in this. DEADLY SHOT has more than his share of ability and we’re expecting him to fire fresh after a solid lead-up trial performance. Did win at Belmont first up when last in work and he has measured up against better quality opposition than this in the past. BAHAMA MAMA was well found at her Geraldton debut ($2.45) and didn’t let her supporters down, racing on-pace and working clear for a comfortable victory. This is obviously tougher, but she’s drawn to enjoy another sweet run in transit and she has to rate among the top three winning chances, while RED HOT FLIRT steps out for the first time in 70 days and showed enough during her initial racing campaign. Races on top of the speed and can give some cheek fresh.

Tips: 3-1-6-4
Suggested: 3. LUCKY LINDA LULU each way.

3. LUCKY LINDA LULU
1. DEADLY SHOT
6. BAHAMA MAMA
4. RED HOT FLIRT

RACE 5 GET THE TABTOUCH MAIDEN 5:15 PM (1410M)

Simon A. Miller has enjoyed a good start since going it alone in 2018, including a winning double at Ascot on Saturday, and this looks the right race for his ALL SQUARE to break through. Fair to say we’ve certainly seen stronger All Aged Maidens in Bunbury and this filly will find this a lot easier than what she faced last Wednesday when running into the very smart Masquerade. Looking at Vince Accardi’s Daily Sectionals data, her final 200m time suggests she went to the line stronger than every runner except the winner and that she should appreciate the rise to 1410m for this assignment. Expecting ALL SQUARE to roll forward from the mid draw and take some beating. COULD BE QUEEN has been out of form for a while now, but she showed some signs that she could be on the improve last start in a strong form race at Ascot last start. This isn’t overly strong and we wouldn’t be surprised to see this mare get back and run on well into the finish at a price. DANELAW was racing for the first time in over two years last start and will naturally strip a lot fitter for this assignment. Blinkers have been added and her best results prior to injury stack up reasonably well in this company, so we’re anticipating a forward showing, while first-starter EVERYMILE A MEMORY has the right trainer, jockey and breeding, and wasn’t too bad behind Masquerade in her latest trial. Keep safe on debut.

Tips: 10-6-5-12
Suggested: 10. ALL SQUARE win (1) & place (3).

10. ALL SQUARE
6. COULD BE QUEEN
5. DANELAW
12. EVERYMILE A MEMORY

RACE 6 RANGEVIEW STUD YEARLING PARADE JANUARY 30 HCP 5:45 PM (1690M)

Really competitive race this and we were trying to squeeze six into our top four, eventually rolling with the consistent MOUQUET on top. Enjoyed a nice run on the leader’s back and boxed on well in the straight in a pretty strong Class 3 at Ascot last start, and we feel as though the Cappo D’oro formlines stack up pretty well. MOUQUET has raced well over this Track/Distance in the past, running into the talented Friaresque here last March, and this does look a pretty good option for the Brett Wilkinson-trained five-year-old. DUCK FEET was brave in defeat when three-deep the entire at Pinjarra two back before finding the 1900m a stretch when rolled narrowly at Narrogin last time. Suited back to the mile for this assignment and he shouldn’t have to waste too much fuel from his low draw. IMPRESSZAR is another consistent competitor who was well in the market ($5.50) at Pinjarra last start and ran her usual honest race in this grade. Gives herself every chance by racing on top of the speed and she has to be included, while THAT’S THE GIO is a four-year-old we have a bit of time for and wouldn’t be surprised to see sharp improvement from him second up.

Tips: 4-1-8-6
Suggested: 4. MOUQUET each way.

4. MOUQUET
1. DUCK FEET
8. IMPRESSZAR
6. THAT’S THE GIO

RACE 7 IRON JACK AUSTRALIA DAY AT BUNBURY TURF CLUB HCP 6:15 PM (1410M)

Good clash coming up here with FINANCE and KING OF CHAOS both likely to attract plenty of support, and both are expected to challenge for favoritism. We have a lot of time for FINANCE though and are happy to lock him in after finding Rising Sea too tough late when coming off a 27-day break last start. We expect to see him much sharper with that run under his belt and he does look well placed coming back to Class 1 company. Drawn to get a soft run with cover, after punching the breeze last time, and with a nice smother early FINANCE should have plenty of fuel to launch late.We were really keen on KING OF CHAOS over 1208m last Wednesday and thought he was home when in front 200m out, however, he simply couldn’t match the finishing burst of Snow Blossom. Vince Accardi’s Daily Sectionals clocked him running his final 200m in a fairly soft 12.24 seconds, so that doesn’t fill us with a huge amount of confidence stepping up to this 1410m assignment, however, the Simon A. Miller stable must be respected and he’s not going to waste any fuel early from the low draw. GLEN ALBYN is on the quick back-up after catching the eye in 60+ company last Wednesday and there’s no doubt he should’ve finished closer after encountering traffic issues in the straight. The Daily Sectionals data backs that up also and although his winning record is poor, he only has to hold that form to give this a nudge, while THE SHOE is much better than his recent results suggest and the blinkers going back on is a good sign. No surprise to see hit back hard off a 26-day break.

Tips: 1-2-12-3
Suggested: 1. FINANCE win (1) & place (3).

1. FINANCE
2. KING OF CHAOS
12. GLEN ALBYN
3. THE SHOE


The Leg Up is provided by Thoroheads — Digital content producers servicing the Western Australian Thoroughbred Horse Racing Industry.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the view of the Bunbury Turf Club.